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Dynamic world. Who would think that speed and magnitude of change after COVID pandemic will speed up... Deglobalization trend started many years ago, and now clearly intensified in the form of trade war.
Long talking, not so quick in decisions European politicians as well as long-term Chinese strategic planners faced new way of doing business politics by recently elected Donald Trump. New way based on power, economics, speed and to a certain extent ultimatum invitation to a dialogue. The last one is probably one of the key reasons for trade war.
If conquire complexity of different categories and information noise and think what trade war is really about, in a simple way it is about utilization of power of trade of one country vs. others. This power of trade is based on trade balance (export minus import). In fact, it is important to assess trade balance by categories of goods and services, model second/third level moves of countries in different scenarios. But this is math game, where input parameters are clear at the beginning (apart from the risk of real war, but for simplicity and ethical reasons let's leave it out here).
Look at USA vs. China trade data back in 2000 and now. Dramatic change. Completely different relative position.
What do you think, is it too late for USA to initiate trade war now or it is not real trade war, but rather specific invitation to concrete discussions?
